Market Conditions Expected to Tighten in May, with Significant Declines in Blister Copper RCs [SMM Analysis]

SMM May 6 NEWS：

In April 2025, blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 950-1,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 1,050 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt MoM.Blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 700-1,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 850 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt MoM. CIF import blister copper RCs were quoted at $90-100/mt, with an average price of $95/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM.

In April, following a sharp decline in copper prices after the Qingming Festival, suppliers of secondary copper raw materials chose to hold back cargoes. Meanwhile, a reduction in US copper scrap imports rapidly tightened the copper scrap market, prompting many copper anode producers using scrap to rely on consuming raw material inventories to fulfill long-term contract deliveries. However, as most upstream and downstream companies had already signed monthly processing fee agreements for April by the end of March, coupled with persistently high copper scrap prices during the month, producers had virtually no profit margins, resulting in almost no spot transactions in the market. Therefore, the processing fees in April did not reflect the tight market conditions.

SMM's weekly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 600-800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 700 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt WoW. Weekly blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 900 yuan/mt, unchanged WoW. Weekly CIF import blister copper RCs were quoted at $90-100/mt, with an average price of $95/mt, unchanged WoW. Domestic copper anode RCs were quoted at 450-550 yuan/mt, with an average price of 500 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt WoW.

After the market had shifted to a tightening pattern, blister copper and copper anode RCs saw a significant decline in May. However, the future spot supply situation still depends on the trend of copper prices. If copper prices rebound further, the supply of secondary copper raw materials will continue to recover, and market production will increase accordingly. Conversely, if producer profits remain unfavorable, the market will primarily rely on long-term contract supplies, while imports of copper scrap may continue to decrease. Additionally, two copper anode plate suppliers with mine-based operations plan to conduct maintenance in May. However, imported copper anode cargoes delayed due to shipping schedules in Q1 will gradually arrive at ports, potentially providing some supplementary supply. From the demand side, some smelters will conduct maintenance in May, reducing their procurement of blister copper cold material, while other smelters will resume normal demand after completing maintenance. Overall, if copper prices do not rise significantly, the market is expected to face a tight supply and demand situation in May.